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Kunyu: A High-Performing Global Weather Model Beyond Regression Losses

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Over the past year, data-driven global weather forecasting has emerged as a new alternative to traditional numerical weather prediction. This innovative approach yields forecasts of comparable accuracy at a tiny fraction of computational costs. Regrettably, as far as I know, existing models exclusively rely on regression losses, producing forecasts with substantial blurring. Such blurring, although compromises practicality, enjoys an unfair advantage on evaluation metrics. In this paper, I present Kunyu, a global data-driven weather forecasting model which delivers accurate predictions across a comprehensive array of atmospheric variables at 0.35{\deg} resolution. With both regression and adversarial losses integrated in its training framework, Kunyu generates forecasts with enhanced clarity and realism. Its performance outpaces even ECMWF HRES in some aspects such as the estimation of anomaly extremes, while remaining competitive with ECMWF HRES on evaluation metrics such as RMSE and ACC. Kunyu is an important step forward in closing the utility gap between numerical and data-driven weather prediction.


FuXi: A cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecast

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Over the past few years, due to the rapid development of machine learning (ML) models for weather forecasting, state-of-the-art ML models have shown superior performance compared to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s high-resolution forecast (HRES) in 10-day forecasts at a spatial resolution of 0.25 degree. However, the challenge remains to perform comparably to the ECMWF ensemble mean (EM) in 15-day forecasts. Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of mitigating the accumulation of forecast errors for effective long-term forecasts. Despite numerous efforts to reduce accumulation errors, including autoregressive multi-time step loss, using a single model is found to be insufficient to achieve optimal performance in both short and long lead times. Therefore, we present FuXi, a cascaded ML weather forecasting system that provides 15-day global forecasts with a temporal resolution of 6 hours and a spatial resolution of 0.25 degree. FuXi is developed using 39 years of the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis dataset. The performance evaluation, based on latitude-weighted root mean square error (RMSE) and anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), demonstrates that FuXi has comparable forecast performance to ECMWF EM in 15-day forecasts, making FuXi the first ML-based weather forecasting system to accomplish this achievement.